What are the realistic chances of an H1B lottery this year (FY 2014)?

As most of us know, according to a USCIS press release from March 15, 2013, there is a good chance of an H1B lottery this year, which will occur if more than 65,000 applications are recieved between April 1 and April 5, 2013.

Do you believe that to be true? What do you think the realistic chances of that happening are? Speculations have so far suggested the cap would be met much earlier than last year, though perhaps not as early as in the first 5 days. What do you really think?

I am hearing all sorts of rumors, so I just want to gauge what people think.

The lottery sucks, especially for highly educated candidates (PhD), who would have to leave the country if they are not selected.

I wasn’t anticipating an early lottery this year, but USCIS’s comments have made me rethink.

Even if the lottery happens, you will get 2 chances (I assume you will be filing under Advanced degree cap). You will first be subject to 20K random selection (if that cap is reached in 5 days), and if not selected in that selection, you will be placed w/ non-advanced degree folks and subject to another selection.

In other words, your chances are better than those who haven’t done education in US.