EB2 priority retrogrsssion


I noticed that the eb2 moved back from Nov 2008 and Oct 2004. I do understand 40,000 limit on eb2 per year and 7% for india - 2802.

Could anyone explain how the dates move forward and backward based on exmaple…pls

Also how we can estimate when a person can i485 if the PD is jun 2015


Once a visa bulletin is released, folks start submitting I-485 to USCIS. USCIS then reports back the demand on the basis of received 485s.

If they feel that at current priority date, demand will outrun the supply then they retrogress the dates to control the demand. Once new fiscal year starts in Oct, they would move forward the dates to generate new demand.

For a June 2015 PD, I expect dates to become current in 10 years from now. If you look at pending 485 chart for EB-2 India, its pathetic and this is from 2009, 2010 when the market hadn’t picked-up. I can hardly imagine how many petitions were filed in 2012 onwards when the job market was at steep increase.

Thanks for the insight Saurabh.
From What I understand there 2802 EB2 India applications approved every year.
Are you saying there 28020 applicants ahead of mine? OR is it an approximate estimate based on US job market and could vary considerably. Does USCIS publish the no of EB2(india) applications received every year and can it be access online. Could you share link(s) on which your estimate is based.

I am sorry my question might seem silly. Just trying to understand…

Look at this chart from jan 2016: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_of_01-12-2016.pdf

If you look at EB-2 India, then you will notice that 20,269 EB-2 India applications are pending and that is taking only filings until 2010 into consideration.

As the dates were moved forward till April 2010 previously, we have information about these petitions. As dates progress, entries will made for empty months/years and you would get better insight. At the moment, the delay looks considerable.

And this is the page to follow for their inventory updates: https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

So as of Jan 2016- there 20,269 EB-2 India application who have PD before April 2010 - who are still to file i485 as their date is not current.
Also need to consider the April 2010 to Jun 2015 eb2 india applicants- assume there are 4000 applicants/yr-
That makes 20,269 + 4000*4= ~36000 applicants. Of which 2802 applicants will get processed every year?
I am trying to understand the approx no. ignore the details that do not change the nos considerably.

Yes that is correct. The backlog is BIG and it’s a slow long road for EB2 India.

I am trying to read the EB1 INDIA pending it says 8214 applications are pending…
But what I have heard EB1 INDIA is current and folks get GC is 6 months. In the bulletin there are application pending for 2009 to 2015. How is that possible? Are these folks waiting for GC still?

Most of them are 2015 and would be under process. There would be some old ones in RFE etc. In general they get green card within few months.